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Economics of Crime: Rational Offender and Moral Costs of Crime
Šilar, Milan ; Mlčoch, Lubomír (advisor) ; Gregor, Martin (referee)
Main weakness of economics of crime is that it focuses on rational offender who is isolated from society. This thesis gives overview of game theory models, which take into account possible reactions of other actors to offender`s actions. I show that some variables of crime are dependent on individual`s social environment and I analyze them using moral costs of crime, where some gains and losses from crime are interconnected between people. Two own models are presented. First model deals with aggregated crime with significant role of moral costs of crime. Second model is a modification of Inspection game which includes moral costs of crime and is than modeled using evolutionary game theory. Result of first model is higher volatility of crime than in standard models of rational offender. Crime is maximally volatile in time in the second model. There is a critical level of moral costs of crime and after reaching this level, assumptions of inspection game are violated and society converges to state with zero crime. It is demonstrated on both models that crime is a self- propagating phenomenon, because of social interactions.
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Vliv hazardu na kriminalitu: evidence z České Republiky
Lupač, Milan ; Dušek, Libor (advisor) ; Špecián, Petr (referee)
The focus of this thesis is to examine the relationship between gambling and crime in the Czech environment, where gambling is broadly available. Data about the individual gambling machines and tables together with the data about offenses in particular police districts were used in order to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The final dataset observes 388 geographical units over the life span between April 2013 and December 2015. The study employs three estimation techniques the OLS, Poisson regression and Negative binomial regression to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The main variable representing the size of gambling is the number of slot machines as these are the most broadly available type of gambling. The final estimated relationship between crime and slot machines is that one additional slot machine is associated with an increase in crime by 0.3-0.5% depending on the method and frequency. On the contrary, the effect of casino games, electromechanical roulettes, and dice devices on crime was found to be statistically insignificant. In addition, the study also analyses particular types of crimes, finding that gambling has an impact particularly on crimes that involve material benefits as opposed to the violent crimes. Moreover, it also conducts a what-if analysis demonstrating the estimated impact of reduction of gambling on the substantial drop of the number of offenses over the observed period was rather limited and account for 937 offenses.
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The Economic Efficiency of House Arrest
Michailidis, Simon ; Babin, Jan (advisor) ; Rod, Aleš (referee)
The main purpose of this bachelor thesis is to determine whether house arrest is more economically efficient than imprisonment. House arrest was first evaluated in terms of the impact on public budgets, followed by an assessment of its overall economic efficiency. For the purposes of the analysis, the cost function of the Prison Service was estimated using the high-low method. This function made it possible to determine potential savings in the Prison Service by replacing one imprisonment with house arrest. The costs of house arrest using electronic monitoring and random checks were then calculated. The costs and potential savings are similar in amount, although significant savings in public funds by replacing imprisonment with house arrest was not demonstrated. For evaluating the overall economic efficiency, both the previous cost analyses and the conclusions of the modern economics of crime were used. In this context, house arrest is clearly more cost-efficient than imprisonment. This fact has been confirmed by the frequent use of house arrest abroad.
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Estimating the impact of the 2012 liquor prohibition on crime
Krejsa, Jiří ; Dušek, Libor (advisor) ; van Koten, Silvester (referee)
This thesis focuses on capturing causal link between alcohol consumption and one of its externalities, crime. The quasi-natural experiment of the Czech temporary ban on hard liquor following an outbreak of methanol poisonings in September 2012 provides a valuable setting for evaluation of the alcohol-crime relationship. Over the course of the prohibition, violent crime rates fell by approximately 10 %, just like the aggregate of aggravated assault, criminal threatening, vandalism and property damage. In addition, the biggest share of reduction in crime falls on weekend criminality. The number of offenders under the influence of alcohol dropped by approximately 18 % for traffic-related offences and by 28 % in non-traffic offenses. The possibility of the reduction in crime being caused by lower detection capabilities of the law enforcement was examined. The reduction in reported cases of e.g. driving under the influence might be to a large extend explained by lower detection, but it could have reduced only rates of victimless crimes. Finally, the property crime rate was not significantly affected by the intervention, except for burglaries into bars and restaurants.
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Analysis of impact of the 2013 presidential amnesty on crime rates
Krejsa, Jiří ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Babin, Jan (referee)
In this thesis I analyze the impact of the 2013 presidential amnesty on crime rate. Using difference-in-differences estimates I evaluate its impact on crime rates in Czech Republic in comparison with Slovak Republic. These estimates are based on a balanced panel of data from 58 months. Based on my specification of model I estimate that the average effect on rate of both larceny and burglary is an increase by 6.63 % and no statistically significant effect on violent crime. Therefore I was able to confirm my hypothesis that non-random selection of pardoned prisoners would result in selective impact on the crime rates. I also discuss possible sources of bias of my estimates.
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Ekonomie zlatého zločinu
Mlčoch, Tomáš ; Schwarz, Jiří (advisor) ; Dušek, Libor (referee)
This master's thesis examines a criminal response to the sharp increase in the real gold price between the years 1998 and 2012. By using a regression analysis, I show that an increase in the real gold price does not have a significant impact on the number of golden crimes but the gold price significantly influences the stolen amount of gold with the elasticity of 2.2. In addition, an increase of lagged real wage and non-lagged real wage, and the number of prisoners significantly decreases golden crime whereas increased unemployment has a negative impact. Moreover, I find that in all types of a regression analysis (daily, monthly and quarterly) higher temperature and also lower cloudiness (as proxies for the good weather) significantly increase the golden crime rate. The daily model also revealed that during weekends and holidays there is significantly and markedly lower crime.
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The economic and social costs of firearm regulation: Impacts of regulation of output, sale, export and import of firearms on state economy and citizens.
Kukač, Petr ; Procházka, Pavel (advisor) ; Hřebík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyzes effect of firearm regulation on crime rate and selected macroeconomic indicators and compares the results with previous findings. The starting point is Gary Becker's economics of crime adapted to the topic of civilian gun ownership. It contains correlation analysis observing the interaction of legally held firearms and gun crime committed with those firearms. The result of the analysis is strong negative correlation between two variables. The second part of this thesis also contains crime statistics from selected OECD countries. The final part shows us the macroeconomic impact of regulation of civilian gun ownership. The result is that changes in gun policy will cause significant impact on employment, collected taxes, output and international trade.
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Are drivers of luxurious cars more likely to commit driving offences ?
Klouček, Oldřich ; Rod, Aleš (advisor) ; Babin, Jan (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to verify whether drivers of luxurious cars are more likely to violate road traffic regulations. Theoretical background of this analysis consists of standard consumer theory using utility maximization and cost-benefit analysis which provide analysis of illegal behavior. This thesis summarizes the most important parts of economics of luxury and economics of crime and then uses this summary to create assumptions and models. Empirical part is based on city traffic analysis and driving offences that could be committed in order to avoid waiting in traffic jam. Data collected by terrain observations are used to verify that with increasing purchasing costs of a car also increases probability of committing a driving offence. By using assumption, that luxurious cars can be considered as cars with high purchase costs, was proved, that drivers of these cars are more likely to commit such a driving offence. It was also proved that time spent in traffic jam is one main of the factors that influence decision whether or not commit a driving offence.
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Crime and Religion
Ševčík, Jan ; Kovanda, Lukáš (advisor) ; Svoboda, Miroslav (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyzes relationship between number of Christians and criminality. It tests a hypothesis that there is a negative effect of number of religious people on number of crimes. This effect is tested on 7 categories of crime: murder, rape, assault, burglary, larceny, robbery and total crime. Data used in model are from 2011, when there was a census in Czech Republic. 14 regions of Czech Republic are analyzed with OLS method. Negative effect of religion was found statistically significant on burglary and total crime.
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Unemployment and crime
Krempaský, Michal ; Koblovský, Petr (advisor) ; Brožová, Dagmar (referee)
This thesis analyzes a relationship between unemployment and crime. I test a hypothesis whether unemployment affects crime indirectly through an immediate negative opportunity effect and delayed positive motivation effect. The influence of unemployment is analyzed in respect of 11 categories of crime. The analysis was performed using fixed effects on quarterly panel data for 14 regions of the Czech Republic from the last quarter of 2005 to the last quarter of 2012. The negative opportunity effect and positive motivation effect proved to be statistically significant in the model of property crimes and total crime. However, size of both effects is very small.
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